My Monthly Candle Sales Increased from 200 to 500 Units — How Quickly Should I Increase Raw-Material Inventory Without Assuming the Growth Will Continue Forever?
Share
Which sales figure should I plan on? The last month (500), not the three-month average (390) and not the trend (600). The average leaves you short if 500 holds. The trend stocks you for a month that has not happened. See choosing the pace.
What if the growth stops? Ordering fortnightly at 500, a fall back to 400 leaves about 167 candles' worth of stock at month end (31.59 kg of wax). Buying a month at the trend of 600 would leave 340 (64.44 kg).
What does a fortnight's order cost at 500 a month? Wax 4 × 10 kg + 4 × 1 kg + 1 × 500 g of CSI 468 (₹28,405.00) plus two oils (₹17,667.81): ₹46,072.81, against ₹18,898.03 at 200 a month.
Choosing the pace to plan on
Say your last four months were Jun 200, Jul 280, Aug 390, Sep 500. The history is an example; use yours. The title fixes the start and end: 200 then 500. Three candidate paces fall out of it. The last month, 500, is what the business is doing now. The three-month average (July to September), 390, smooths out noise but lags any real change. The trend, extending the average climb of 100 a month, says 600. Only one of those has actually happened.
| Planning pace | Candles a month | Wax a month | Wax reorder point | Oil a month | Oil reorder point | A month of wax in CSI 468 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three-month average | 390 | 73.91 kg | 34.49 kg | 6.43 kg | 3.00 kg | 7 × 10 kg + 4 × 1 kg · ₹47,190.00 |
| Last month | 500 | 94.76 kg | 44.22 kg | 8.24 kg | 3.85 kg | 9 × 10 kg + 1 × 5 kg · ₹60,515.00 |
| Trend | 600 | 113.71 kg | 53.07 kg | 9.89 kg | 4.61 kg | 11 × 10 kg + 4 × 1 kg · ₹72,670.00 |
The difference between the average and the trend is 39.80 kg of wax a month. That is the size of the bet you are making when you choose a pace. The last month sits in the middle and has one decisive advantage: it is a fact. Planning on it means you are never short of what you are already selling, and never stocked for sales you have only imagined.
What each choice risks
To see the risk plainly, imagine buying a whole month at each pace, plus a 7-day buffer at that pace, and then living through three possible Octobers: sales fall back to 400, hold at 500, or follow the trend to 600. The table shows what is left at the end of the month, in candles' worth of material. A negative number is a shortfall.
| Bought for | October falls to 400 | October holds at 500 | October reaches 600 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Three-month average (390) | 81 left · 15.35 kg | 19 short | 119 short |
| Last month (500) | 217 left · 41.06 kg | 117 left · 22.11 kg | 17 left · 3.16 kg |
| Trend (600) | 340 left · 64.44 kg | 240 left · 45.48 kg | 140 left · 26.53 kg |
| Fortnightly at 500, resized | 167 left · 31.59 kg | 117 left · 22.11 kg | 67 left · 12.63 kg |
Planning on the average runs short if 500 holds and badly short if growth continues. Planning on the trend leaves 340 candles' worth, 64.44 kg of wax plus the matching oil, if October falls back. Planning on the last month is balanced but still leaves 217 if sales dip. The last row is the approach this page recommends: plan on 500 but order two weeks at a time, and size the second fortnight from what the first actually sold. It leaves less in a bad month (167) and more cushion in a good one (67) than buying a whole month at 500 or at the trend.
Fast on the line, slow on the order
At 200 a month the wax reorder point was 17.69 kg. At 500 it is 44.22 kg. If you keep the old line, you will not reorder until the shelf is at 17.69 kg, which at the new pace is only 5.6 days of wax against a 7-day delivery. The first week of growth would end in a stockout. So the line moves today. The order size is different. At 200 a month you may have been buying a month at a time, about 37.90 kg. At 500 a month, a month is 94.76 kg. Jumping straight to that means the first full-size order lands before you know whether 500 is real. Two weeks at a time halves the size of each bet.
| At 200 a month | At 500 a month | |
|---|---|---|
| Wax a day | 1,263.47 g | 3,158.67 g |
| Wax reorder point | 17.69 kg | 44.22 kg |
| Oil reorder point (all scents) | 1.54 kg | 3.85 kg |
| Fortnight of wax (CSI 468) | 1 × 10 kg + 1 × 5 kg + 3 × 1 kg · ₹11,505.00 | 4 × 10 kg + 4 × 1 kg + 1 × 500 g · ₹28,405.00 |
| Fortnight of Lemongrass and Lime (60%) | 1 × 1 kg · ₹5,200.00 | 2 × 1 kg + 3 × 100 g + 1 × 50 g · ₹12,500.00 |
| Fortnight of Cucumber Green Tea (40%) | 1 × 500 g + 1 × 100 g + 1 × 50 g · ₹2,193.03 | 1 × 1 kg + 1 × 500 g + 1 × 50 g · ₹5,167.81 |
| Fortnightly order, wax + oil | ₹18,898.03 | ₹46,072.81 |
| Peak stock after a delivery (wax) | 26.84 kg | 66.61 kg |
Two things change with the scale, and both are useful. First, the fragrance moves into kilo bottles. At 500 a month, a fortnight of the top scent is 2,307.20 g, so Lemongrass and Lime, whose 1 kg is 11.9% cheaper per gram than its 100 g, is bought in kilos. Second, CSI 468's 10 kg bag is ₹637.00 a kilo against ₹650.00 for the 1 kg, a 2% difference that now applies to most of the wax you buy. Neither is a reason to buy more; both are reasons to buy the right packs for the quantity you actually need.
| Pack | Price | Per kg | 200 g candles (with allowance) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 500 g | ₹325.00 | ₹650.00 | 2.64 |
| 1 kg | ₹650.00 | ₹650.00 | 5.28 |
| 5 kg | ₹3,185.00 | ₹637.00 | 26.38 |
| 10 kg | ₹6,370.00 | ₹637.00 | 52.76 |
| Pack | Price | Per gram | Candles at 16.48 g |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 g | ₹116.52 | ₹7.77 | 0.91 |
| 50 g | ₹330.00 | ₹6.60 | 3.03 |
| 100 g | ₹590.00 | ₹5.90 | 6.07 |
| 500 g | ₹2,600.00 | ₹5.20 | 30.34 |
| 1 kg | ₹5,200.00 | ₹5.20 | 60.68 |
The rest of the bill moves too
Wicks and jars scale one for one with candles, and they are easy to forget because they are cheap. At 500 a month, a fortnight is about 234 candles; with 3% spares, 241 wicks, which rounds to 2 × 100 + 1 × 50 Eco Candle Wicks Thin C1 for ₹1,475.00. Wick size for your jar is not published; your tested wick carries over. Jars depend on your container and supplier. If your jar supplier has a longer lead time than your wax supplier, the jar reorder point needs its own calculation: two weeks of safety stock for wax, fragrance, wicks and jars sets the floor for each component.
Scents need their own look after growth. Growth is rarely spread evenly: one or two scents usually carry it. Recalculate each scent's reorder point from its own last four weeks. The ten-scent inventory page shows the split, and the fast- and slow-scent page covers slow scents whose line barely moves.
Step-up and step-down rules
Growth planning goes wrong when every decision is a fresh judgement. A few fixed rules, decided in advance, keep you from reacting to one good week or ignoring three bad ones.
Seasons are different from growth. If the rise is October's festive lift, it will reverse after Diwali on 8 November, and the Diwali page plans it as a season with an end date. If your swings are month-to-month noise around a steady level, the safety-stock page sizes the buffer for that. For growth that runs much further, 1,000 to 10,000 a month covers when pack sizes and buying routes change, and the three-month purchasing plan turns a forecast into orders.
CANDLEMAKINGSUPPLIESINDIA supplies raw materials, not finished candles. A fast-growing customer is the easiest one to over-sell. This page tells you to order two weeks at a time and not to buy for a trend, because on the listed catalogue buying ahead of sales earns almost nothing and risks stock you cannot use.
Every wax and oil price here comes from live CSI listings pulled on 24 September 2026; wick prices are from the September 2026 wick pull. Paces, reorder points, exposure figures and fortnightly orders are arithmetic on the reader's figures (200 rising to 500 a month) and an example history, shown so you can check them.
The monthly history, 200 g candle, 8% load (CSI 468 has no published ceiling in this data), 3% allowance, 7-day delivery, 7-day buffer, 60/40 scent split and the 10% step rules are working assumptions to replace with your own. CSI does not publish delivery times. For fortnightly standing orders, GST invoicing, MSDS or IFRA documentation, message us on WhatsApp at +91 7397976926.
Frequently asked questions
- I Sell About 100 × 200 g Candles Every Month — How Much Wax and Fragrance Oil Should I Normally Keep in Stock if Supplier Delivery Takes One Week?
- I Sell 500 Candles a Month but Demand Varies by 20% — How Much Safety Stock of Wax Should I Keep Without Tying up Too Much Cash?
- I Sell 1,000 Candles Every Month Across 10 Fragrances — How Do I Calculate Fragrance Inventory When Some Scents Sell Five Times Faster than Others?
- My Fragrance Supplier Takes Two Weeks to Deliver — How Do I Calculate Reorder Points Separately for Fast- and Slow-Selling Candle Fragrances?
- I'm Entering Diwali with Average Sales of 100 Candles a Week but Expect Demand to Triple — How Much Wax and Fragrance Should I Secure Beforehand?
- I Want to Maintain Two Weeks of Safety Stock for My Candle Business — How Do I Calculate the Minimum Quantity of Wax, Fragrance, Wicks and Jars I Should Never Fall Below?
- I'm Planning Production for the Next Three Months — How Do I Convert My Candle Sales Forecast into a Purchasing Plan for Wax, Fragrance Oils, Wicks and Jars?
- I'm Growing from 1,000 to 10,000 Candles a Month — How Do I Calculate When to Move from Retail Packs to Wholesale Cartons and Bulk Raw-Material Purchases?
Customer reviews: The six reviews at the top of this page are genuine, published Judge.me reviews left by CSI customers on the product pages named on each card — Eco Candle Wicks, Premium Candle Wicking Needle and Bamboo Wick Holder. They are general product reviews, not assessments of the guidance set out here. Names, star ratings, dates and products are as recorded by Judge.me and wording is unedited. "Verified buyer" appears only on the three reviews Judge.me recorded as verified — Monika Deep, Subhankar Roy and Sneha Tamang; the reviews from Ashwini, LJ and Lalitha Jagan are published but not recorded as verified, and carry no badge.
Figures pulled 24 September 2026, CSI live pricing: Premium Coconut Soy Wax CSI 468 ₹325.00 / 500 g, ₹650.00 / 1 kg, ₹3,185.00 / 5 kg, ₹6,370.00 / 10 kg. Lemongrass and Lime ₹116.52 / 15 g, ₹330.00 / 50 g, ₹590.00 / 100 g, ₹2,600.00 / 500 g, ₹5,200.00 / 1 kg. Cucumber Green Tea ₹93.22 / 15 g, ₹176.41 / 50 g, ₹352.82 / 100 g, ₹1,663.80 / 500 g, ₹3,327.60 / 1 kg. Natural Soy Pearl Wax ₹450.00 / 1 kg, ₹2,124.00 / 5 kg. Eco Candle Wicks Thin C1 ₹59.00 / 10, ₹118.00 / 20, ₹295.00 / 50, ₹590.00 / 100 (₹5.90 each).
Non-price figures and assumptions: Reader's figures: monthly sales rising from 200 to 500 candles. Example history: June 200, July 280, August 390, September 500; three-month average 390; straight-line trend 600. Working assumptions: 200 g finished candle, 8% load as a share of finished weight (16 g oil + 184 g wax), 3% allowance, 30-day month, 7-day delivery (CSI does not publish delivery times), 7-day buffer, fortnightly orders resized to the previous fortnight's sales, 60/40 scent split, 3% spare wicks, 10% step-up/step-down thresholds. Exposure figures: month bought at pace P plus a 7-day buffer, minus October sales. No fragrance ceiling is published for CSI 468 in this data. Totals exclude freight, GST, jars and packaging. Prices and availability change — the linked product pages are always authoritative.