My Monthly Candle Sales Fluctuate Between 300 and 700 Units — Should I Base Raw-Material Inventory on Average Sales or Peak Demand?
Share
What is the 400-unit spread worth? At a 185 g fill with fragrance at 8% of wax weight, 400 candles is 74 kg of wax, 5.92 kg of oil, 400 wicks and 400 jars — about ₹69,870 of materials. The 200 units between the 500 average and the 700 peak are ₹34,935.
What does getting it wrong cost? Buying only for the average leaves a trigger of 51.8 kg, which at the peak rate of 5.18 kg a day covers just 10 of your 14 lead-time days — roughly 112 candles unmade. Buying a full peak month in a 300-unit month carries 74 kg forward, about 3.3 weeks of average production.
Which materials lean toward peak? The cheap shared ones. 200 extra Eco Candle Wicks cost ₹1,180 and never expire; 200 units of a single fragrance oil cost ₹9,081 and only sell if that scent sells. Lean toward peak on wax and wicks, toward average on fragrance.
What a 400-unit swing weighs
Before you can decide between average and peak, the swing has to stop being a sales statistic and become a pile of material. At a 185 g fill, every candle is 185 g of wax, 14.8 g of fragrance oil at 8% of wax weight, one wick and one jar — 199.8 g in the glass, which is the same dose expressed as 7.41% of the finished candle if you prefer that convention. Multiply by the swing and the 400 units between your worst month and your best month become 74 kg of wax, 5.92 kg of oil, 400 wicks and 400 jars.
Put a price on it and the decision stops feeling abstract. On CSI 464 at ₹507.40/kg, British Rose at the 1 kg rate of ₹3.068 a gram, an Eco Candle Wick at ₹5.90 and a 200 ml Salsa jar at ₹29.50 in the 100-piece pack, one candle's materials are ₹174.68. The 400-unit spread is therefore ₹69,870.16 of raw material — and the 200 units between the average and the peak, which is the part actually in dispute, is ₹34,935.08.
| Month | Candles | Soy wax | Fragrance oil | Wax per working day | Materials at ₹174.68 a candle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet | 300 | 55.5 kg | 4.44 kg | 2.22 kg | ₹52,404 |
| Below average | 400 | 74.0 kg | 5.92 kg | 2.96 kg | ₹69,872 |
| Average | 500 | 92.5 kg | 7.40 kg | 3.70 kg | ₹87,340 |
| Above average | 600 | 111.0 kg | 8.88 kg | 4.44 kg | ₹1,04,808 |
| Peak | 700 | 129.5 kg | 10.36 kg | 5.18 kg | ₹1,22,276 |
| The spread | 400 | 74.0 kg | 5.92 kg | 2.96 kg | ₹69,870 |
Average for the cycle, the spread for the buffer
Inventory has two jobs and they need two different inputs. Cycle stock exists to cover normal consumption between deliveries, and the honest input for "normal" is the average — otherwise you systematically over-buy every month of the year to protect against a month that happens twice. Safety stock exists to cover the difference between normal and bad, and its honest input is the variability, which here you can read straight off your own figures as a 400-unit range.
There is no universal multiplier for how much of a spread to protect, and anyone quoting you a standard percentage is guessing on your behalf. What you can do is derive the buffer from your own numbers: cover your lead time at the peak rate rather than the average rate, and the arithmetic sizes itself.
| Basis | Wax trigger | Oil trigger | Holds up in a 300 month? | Holds up in a 700 month? | Idle stock in a quiet month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average rate only | 51.8 kg | 4.14 kg | Comfortably — 3.9 weeks of cover | No. Covers 10 of 14 lead-time days; about 112 candles unmade | None |
| Average + spread buffer | 72.5 kg | 5.80 kg | Yes — 5.4 weeks of cover, more than you need | Yes — all 14 days covered at 5.18 kg a day | 20.7 kg of wax, 1.66 kg of oil ≈ ₹15,599 |
| Full peak month on the shelf | 129.5 kg | 10.36 kg | Yes, overwhelmingly | Yes | 74 kg of wax, 5.92 kg of oil ≈ ₹55,710 |
What each error costs, priced
The reason "average or peak" feels unanswerable is that most people compare the two errors in the abstract, where they look symmetrical. They are not. Over-buying a shared material converts cash into material you will certainly use — just later than you wanted. Under-buying in a peak month converts demand into nothing at all, and the month does not come back. But over-buying a scent-specific material is a genuine risk of a write-off, which is why the answer differs by line.
| Decision | What happens in a 300 month | What happens in a 700 month | Worst-case rupees |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trigger on the average (51.8 kg) | Fine. Nothing idle. | Wax runs out 4 days before the delivery lands; about 112 candles unmade | 112 candles of lost margin — the only figure here you can never recover |
| Trigger with the spread buffer (72.5 kg) | 20.7 kg of wax and 1.66 kg of oil sit idle — 5.6 working days of average production | Production never stops | ≈₹15,599 parked for a few weeks |
| Buy a full peak month every month | 74 kg of wax and 5.92 kg of oil carried forward — 3.3 weeks of average production | Production never stops | ≈₹55,710 standing, every quiet month |
| Buffer the wicks to peak | 200 spare wicks, indefinitely usable | Never the constraint | ₹1,180 — the cheapest insurance on this page |
| Buffer one fragrance to peak | 2.96 kg of one scent idle; it only moves if that scent moves | That scent never stops you | ₹9,081.28 of single-scent exposure |
Read the last two rows together and the whole strategy falls out. ₹1,180 buys you complete protection on the wick line; ₹9,081.28 buys you protection on one scent out of several, and creates the one kind of inventory that can genuinely become dead. That asymmetry — not a view about whether next month is good or bad — is what should decide where your money goes.
Which materials lean peak, which lean average
This is the table to copy onto your own sheet. The lean is driven by three things: whether the material is shared across every SKU, what 200 extra units of it cost, and whether a surplus has a second home if the collection changes. Nothing here depends on a forecast.
| Material | Shared across SKUs? | 200 extra units costs | If the collection changes | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soy wax (CSI 464) | Yes — every candle | 37 kg · ₹18,773.80 | Still wax; pours into anything | Toward peak |
| Main wick size (Eco C1) | Yes, if one size dominates | 200 wicks · ₹1,180 | Still usable in any jar of that diameter | Well beyond peak |
| Core jar (200 ml Salsa) | Yes, if it is your standard vessel | 200 jars · ₹5,900 | Usable as long as the vessel stays in the range | Toward peak — breakage argues for it too |
| Core fragrance (British Rose) | No — one scent only | 2.96 kg · ₹9,081.28 | Only moves if that scent moves | Toward average, topped up |
| Secondary fragrances | No | Depends entirely on that scent's share | Highest dead-stock risk in the business | Average or below, in 500 g packs |
| Seasonal jar colour or lid | No — one collection | 200 jars · ₹5,900 up to ₹12,400 on coloured Salsa jars at ₹62 each | Usually nothing to fall back on | Below average, bought to confirmed demand |
| Dye and additives | Partly | Small in rupees, long in shelf time | Colour-specific; low volume | Average; smallest pack that avoids repeat ordering |
One more honest note on that table. The pack ladders decide how cheaply you can execute the lean, and they do not all reward volume. On Eco Candle Wicks the listed price is a flat ₹5.90 for Thin (C1) at every pack from 10 to 1,000, so there is no penalty for buffering wicks and no reward for over-buying them either — buy the quantity you want. On the 200 ml Salsa jar there is a genuine step: ₹40.12 each in the 5-piece pack against ₹29.50 in the 50 and 100, so the jar lean toward peak pays for itself. Check each line on its own page rather than assuming the big pack is cheaper.
Buying fragrance and jars against a swing
Three cards, chosen because they are the lines where a 300-to-700 swing actually hurts. Each table shows every listed pack with its price, the per-gram or per-piece rate and how many 200 g-class candles the pack covers at 14.8 g of oil or one jar each.
| Size | Price | Per 100g | 200g-class candles @ 8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 gm | ₹94.40 | ₹629.33 | ≈1 |
| 50 gm | ₹212.40 | ₹424.80 | ≈3 |
| 100 gm | ₹342.20 | ₹342.20 | ≈6 |
| 500 gm | ₹1,593 | ₹318.60 | ≈33 |
| 1 kg | ₹3,068 | ₹306.80 | ≈67 |
| Size | Price | Per 100g | 200g-class candles @ 8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 gm | ₹93.22 | ₹621.47 | ≈1 |
| 50 gm | ₹271.40 | ₹542.80 | ≈3 |
| 100 gm | ₹502.68 | ₹502.68 | ≈6 |
| 500 gm | ₹2,513.40 | ₹502.68 | ≈33 |
| 1 kg | ₹5,026.80 | ₹502.68 | ≈67 |
| Size | Price | Per piece |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Pcs | ₹200.60 | ₹40.12 |
| 50 Pcs | ₹1,475 | ₹29.50 |
| 100 Pcs | ₹2,950 | ₹29.50 |
The one-page sheet to fill in each month
All of the above collapses into seven rows you can keep in a notebook or a spreadsheet. Fill it in on the same day each month. The only inputs are your own unit sales, your own lead time and the pack prices on the product pages.
| Row | How to fill it | Worked example (300–700, avg 500) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · Average, low and peak months | Twelve months of unit sales | 500 · 300 · 700 |
| 2 · Daily rates | Each ÷ working days, × 185 g | 3.70 kg · 2.22 kg · 5.18 kg of wax a day |
| 3 · Lead time | Your own observed order-to-usable gap, in days | 14 days |
| 4 · Cycle stock | Average daily × lead time | 51.8 kg wax · 4.14 kg oil |
| 5 · Spread buffer | (Peak daily − average daily) × lead time | 20.7 kg wax · 1.66 kg oil |
| 6 · Trigger | Rows 4 + 5, converted to weeks both ways | 72.5 kg wax · 5.80 kg oil = 3.3 weeks average, 2.3 weeks peak |
| 7 · Lean per line | Cost of 200 extra units of each material | Wicks ₹1,180 · jars ₹5,900 · wax ₹18,773.80 · one scent ₹9,081.28 |
And one discipline to go with it: subtract committed stock before you read row 6. If you have accepted a 150-candle order, 27.75 kg of wax and 2.22 kg of oil are promised and should not be counted as available. In a business whose volume swings this much, large orders are exactly what create the swing — so the sheet that ignores them will mislead you precisely in the months that matter.
CANDLEMAKINGSUPPLIESINDIA supplies raw materials, not finished candles. The easy commercial answer to "average or peak" is peak, every time, on every line — it sells more of everything. This page argues for peak on wicks and wax, average on fragrance, and below average on seasonal jars, because a business holding ₹9,000 of a scent that did not sell orders less next quarter, not more.
Every price and pack size is live CSI stock in September 2026 and links to the product page, where current pricing is always authoritative. Fragrance pack ladders are quoted from those pages exactly as listed, including the cases where the larger pack carries no per-gram advantage at all. We publish no throw or performance claim about any oil beyond what its page states and what customers have written in their own published reviews. The 300–700 range, the 500 average, the 185 g fill, the 8% load, 25 working days and the 14-day lead time are the reader's inputs, used to show the method. CSI publishes no delivery time, no minimum order quantity and no stock-availability promise, and none is implied here.
For bulk pricing on volumes above the listed packs, GST invoicing, or MSDS and IFRA documentation, message us on WhatsApp at +91 7397976926 with your monthly range rather than a single figure.
Frequently asked questions
- 500 × 200 g candles a month — how many kilograms of soy wax to keep
- 300 a month with December reaching 1,000 — two demand streams
- 1,000 candles a month — weeks of cover across four material lines
- How much fragrance oil does a candle business need?
- Buying fragrance oils in bulk in India
- How to price candles in India in 2026
- The 12-month candle business calendar
Customer reviews: The six reviews at the top of this page are genuine, published Judge.me reviews left by CSI customers on their product pages. Names, star ratings, dates and products are as recorded by Judge.me; two longer reviews are shortened with an ellipsis and otherwise unedited.
Figures verified September 2026. Reader's assumptions, stated in-text and used in every calculation: monthly unit sales ranging 300 to 700 with a 500 average; 185 g wax fill per 200 g-class candle; fragrance dosed at 8% of wax weight = 14.8 g per candle (equivalent to 7.41% of the 199.8 g finished candle); one wick and one jar per candle; 25 working days a month and a six-day working week; observed supplier lead time of 14 days; a 3% jar breakage allowance. These are the reader's inputs, not CSI figures — CSI publishes no delivery time, no minimum order quantity and no stock-availability promise, and this page makes no claim about what sells. Derived figures: wax 55.5 / 74.0 / 92.5 / 111.0 / 129.5 kg a month at 300 / 400 / 500 / 600 / 700 candles, with daily rates of 2.22 / 2.96 / 3.70 / 4.44 / 5.18 kg; oil 4.44 / 5.92 / 7.40 / 8.88 / 10.36 kg a month, daily 177.6 / 236.8 / 296 / 355.2 / 414.4 g; cycle stock 3.70 × 14 = 51.8 kg wax and 4.14 kg oil; spread buffer (5.18 − 3.70) × 14 = 20.7 kg wax and 1.66 kg oil; trigger 72.5 kg wax and 5.80 kg oil, equal to 3.3 weeks at the 22.2 kg average weekly draw and 2.3 weeks at the 31.08 kg peak weekly draw; an average-only trigger of 51.8 kg covers 10 of 14 lead-time days at the peak rate, about 112 candles; materials per candle ₹93.87 wax + ₹45.41 oil + ₹5.90 wick + ₹29.50 jar = ₹174.68, so the 400-unit spread is ₹69,870.16 and the 200-unit average-to-peak gap is ₹34,935.08, comprising 37 kg wax ₹18,773.80, 2.96 kg oil ₹9,081.28, 200 wicks ₹1,180 and 200 jars ₹5,900. Prices used in maths: Luxury Soy Wax CSI 464 1 kg ₹507.40, 5 kg ₹2,537, 10 kg ₹5,074 (₹507.40/kg flat); British Rose Fragrance Oil 15 gm ₹94.40, 50 gm ₹212.40, 100 gm ₹342.20, 500 gm ₹1,593, 1 kg ₹3,068; Sandalwood Fragrance Oil 15 gm ₹93.22, 50 gm ₹271.40, 100 gm ₹502.68, 500 gm ₹2,513.40, 1 kg ₹5,026.80; Eco Candle Wicks Thin (C1) 10 ₹59, 500 ₹2,950, 1000 ₹5,900 (₹5.90 each at every pack); 200ml Salsa Glass Jar with 63mm Lug Cap 5 Pcs ₹200.60, 50 Pcs ₹1,475, 100 Pcs ₹2,950; 200ml Salsa coloured jars (Amber, Green, Red, Purple, Light Pink) Pack of 5 ₹310, Pack of 50 ₹3,100, Pack of 100 ₹6,200 (₹62 each). Stated specifications as published on product pages: CSI 464 fragrance load up to 10%, melting point and pour both stated as 80–90°C; the 200ml Salsa Glass Jar page states "The 200ml capacity provides ample space for crafting beautiful votive or single-wick candles" — capacity is in millilitres, not grams, so weigh one filled jar before planning from it. Loads are wax formulation limits, not regulatory limits. 1 kg is the largest listed fragrance oil pack. Prices and availability change — the linked product pages are always authoritative.