I'm Starting a Candle Brand With 10 Fragrances — How Much Fragrance Oil Should I Buy Before I Know Which Ones Will Sell?

Three tiers for ten scents

A ten-scent launch almost never sells evenly. Two or three scents do most of the selling, a middle group sells steadily, and a few surprise you in either direction. You cannot know which is which in advance, but you can buy in a way that limits the cost of being wrong. The tier method does that: more stock where you expect demand, less where you are guessing, and a rule for moving scents between tiers once real sales arrive.

The planning rates — 4, 2 and 1 candles a week — are working assumptions for a small brand selling online and at a few markets, not forecasts. Replace them with your own expectations. What matters is the ratio. Tier A holds five times the oil of Tier C, because you expect it to sell four times as fast and you want it to be the last thing to run out. Notice the weeks of cover: every tier lasts roughly six to eight weeks at its planning rate. That is deliberate. It means the whole range needs its first reorder decision at about the same time, after you have real data.

How do you choose which scent goes in which tier? Use reasoning, not hope. Tier A should hold a vanilla or gourmand, because warm sweet profiles are the most widely liked in gifting; a floral with local recognition, such as a night-blooming jasmine; and one fresh scent for customers who dislike sweet. Tier B holds one scent from each remaining family you want to cover. Tier C is where you put the scents you love but cannot justify on broad appeal: a patchouli, a resinous wood, a sharp citrus. Choosing your first fragrance collection and the best 10 fragrance oils to start a candle business go deeper on the scent choice itself.

The launch order, priced

Here are ten real oils placed into the three tiers, priced at CSI's listed sizes. Tier A leans premium, with a vanilla and an Indian floral. Tier B mixes one amber, one white floral, one spice and one wood. Tier C holds three distinctive scents you would want to test on customers.

Tier A takes ₹9,827.00, or 59.8% of the spend, for 57.7% of the oil. That is where your confidence lives. Tier B takes ₹4,361.04 and Tier C ₹2,246.80. The exploratory tier is the cheapest insurance in the order: three scents you are unsure of, tested on real customers for less than one 500 g of Vanilla Bean.

All three Tier A oils are cheaper at 500 g than as five 100 g bottles, but by very different amounts. Lemongrass and Lime saves ₹350.00, a genuine break. Vanilla Bean saves ₹110.00 and Raat Ki Rani ₹113.00. For those two, the 500 g is about convenience and stock security, not price. That is typical of CSI's catalogue: most oils are priced close to flat above 100 g, and only 24 of 91 oils save 5% or more at 1 kg against 100 g.

Compare the tiered order with an equal split. Giving each of the ten scents 250 g (two 100 g and one 50 g) costs ₹16,434.96 for 2,500 g: almost exactly the same money as the tiered order (₹0.12 apart), but 100 g less oil, and the leaders get 15.6 candles each instead of 31.25. The slow scents, meanwhile, hold 15.6 candles each of stock you may never sell. An equal split feels fair. It is the least efficient way to buy for uneven demand.

The lean version

If the standard order is more than you want to commit, keep the tiers and halve the quantities: Tier A at 200 g (two 100 g), Tier B at 100 g, Tier C at 50 g. You lose some stock depth, not the method.

The lean version costs ₹7,468.42, ₹8,966.42 less than the standard. Its weakness is Tier A: 200 g covers 3.1 weeks at 4 candles a week, so with a three-week lead time and a safety week its reorder point (16 candles) is already above its launch stock (12.5 candles). In other words, the lean Tier A reorder is placed on launch day. That is not a problem if you plan for it; it becomes a problem if a leader sells out during a festival weekend. The 50 g Tier C sizes are sensible here because every Tier C oil is priced within about 1% per gram between 50 g and 100 g (Gilli Mitti ₹8.96 at both, Juicy Orange ₹7.58 against ₹7.49), so there is almost no penalty for buying small.

Reorder triggers, written before launch

For each scent, work out the stock level at which you must reorder so that new oil arrives, is poured and has cured before the old stock runs out. Count stock in candle-equivalents: finished candles not yet sold plus grams of oil in the bottle divided by 16. Then:

The reorder quantity steps up by tier. A Tier A scent that is selling reorders at 1 kg, which covers 15.6 weeks at 4 a week. A Tier B scent reorders at 500 g. A Tier C scent that sold reorders at 200 g, which is often the moment it earns promotion. The three-week lead time is a working assumption, not a CSI delivery promise; use your own experience of delivery to your city, plus your pour and cure time. How to set reorder levels and how much inventory to keep cover the steady-state version of this maths once you have months of data.

Reading the first four weeks

After four weeks you will have enough data to reshape the range. Measure sell-through: candles sold divided by candles poured for that scent. It is a better signal than compliments, social media likes or which scent you personally prefer.

Two cautions. Do not judge a scent on the first week alone; early sales favour whatever you displayed most. And do not drop a scent that sold slowly because it was out of stock for part of the month; that is a stock problem, not a demand problem. The launch quantities above are designed so that no tier should run out before week six at its planning rate, which keeps the four-week review fair.

Pouring in stages is itself a stock lever. Oil in a sealed bottle can become any candle size you need; a poured candle is committed to one scent and one jar. Keep a share of each tier as oil until you see which sizes and scents are moving. The ₹5,000 first order and the ₹10,000 split show smaller budgets built on the same principle.

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